This Week In World Affairs
US-Iran: ceasefire under severe strain
The defining arc of the week. It began with quiet diplomacy - indirect talks in Doha concluded with agreement to establish a communication channel to report and record violations, focused on Hormuz shipping and the release of sanctioned Iranian assets - and ended in open exchange of fire. Iran's IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, including Bahrain's Fifth Naval District and Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base, after CENTCOM said US forces hit more than 60 IRGC small boats in response to attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Along the way, Iran had warned that ships departing from its designated Hormuz route would face an "immediate and forceful response", with at least 49 attacks on commercial vessels recorded since the war began, and promised "special" transit terms for China and other friendly nations. All of this unfolded around Khamenei's funeral procession in Tehran, with successor Mojtaba Khamenei yet to appear publicly. 📰 India & Japan make agreements +4
More: Doha talks conclude | Iran strikes Gulf bases | Hormuz route threats | GD Jul 8 edition
NATO's Ankara summit and the Trump question
Days before the summit, Trump called the US relationship with NATO "ridiculous" and "one-sided" on Truth Social, then arrived in Ankara where he renewed his push to bring Greenland under US control and suggested American forces could leave Europe. Europe's counter-programming was heavy on hardware: Rutte announced NATO's first purchase of up to five Triton surveillance drones, up to 10 GlobalEye aircraft, and an A400M strategic airlift fleet; twelve states backed a UK-led £37bn Deep Precision Strike missile programme; Germany's draft 2027 budget puts €109.7bn - one in five federal euros - into defence; and Canada ordered 12 under-ice-capable submarines from Germany's TKMS, its largest military procurement ever. A notable side deal: Trump said he would lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkiye and consider resuming F-35 sales, over Israeli objections. 📰 Trump questions NATO support +6
More: Summit live coverage | German budget | Missile plan | Canada subs
Russia-Ukraine: escalation and grey-zone pressure
Russia fired 74 missiles and 496 drones at Kyiv in what the city's mayor called the most massive attack on the capital, killing 13, and Putin recast the war as a fight "with NATO", claiming 3,000 sq km of gains this year - a figure ISW puts closer to 97 sq km. The grey-zone stories were arguably bigger: an IISS analysis concluded Russia highly likely ran an 18-month drone surveillance campaign against nuclear sites in the UK, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, launched from shadow fleet vessels - with none shot down, and Russia suspended all railway border crossings with Finland, Latvia and Estonia with no official reason given. Meanwhile German prosecutors charged a Ukrainian national, Serhii K, over the Nord Stream blasts, alleging he coordinated the team that planted explosives from the yacht Andromeda - awkward timing for Kyiv as Zelenskyy pressed Ukraine's NATO membership case in Ankara and sought Patriot production licences. 📰 India & Japan make agreements +5
More: Kyiv attack | Nuclear site surveillance | Baltic rail suspension | Nord Stream charges
China flexes across two oceans
China's navy test-launched a long-range ballistic missile with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine in the South Pacific, drawing protests from Australia, Japan and New Zealand - which noted it fell within the Treaty of Rarotonga's nuclear-free zone. Beijing also turned economic and legal screws: export controls on 40 Japanese entities, including Mitsubishi subsidiaries, citing Tokyo's "dangerous remilitarization", and a new ethnic unity law whose Article 63 allows legal action against organisations and individuals abroad, which Amnesty warned could justify transnational repression. 📰 China test-fires ballistic missile +2
More: Missile test | Japan export controls | Ethnic unity law
Indo-Pacific realignment
A busy week of hedging against Beijing: Modi and Takaichi signed defence, economic and maritime security agreements in New Delhi, pledging cooperation on AI, semiconductors and shipbuilding, then Modi met Prabowo in Jakarta with eight agreements expected and advanced talks on Indonesia acquiring BrahMos missiles. Less happily, Taliban drone launches into Balochistan drew Pakistani intercepts and warnings of a heavy response, with hundreds dead in cross-border fighting since February, and Pakistan warned that Indian diversion of Indus flows would constitute an act of war, after India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. 📰 India & Japan make agreements +3
More: India-Japan | India-Indonesia | Pak-Afghan clashes | Indus warning
Trade and economic friction
Washington declined to renew USMCA in its current form, forgoing the automatic 16-year extension and starting a countdown that could see the ~$2tn pact expire as early as 2036, with a US demand that 50% of North American cars be made in the US - a red line for both Canada and Mexico. Separately, EU regulators are questioning the €1.7tn Data Privacy Framework after the US Supreme Court let Trump fire independent agency members, with Max Schrems declaring the basis for transatlantic data transfers "dead". 📰 India & Japan make agreements +2
More: USMCA | EU-US data deal
Elsewhere worth noting
Two bombs detonated near Macron's hotel in Damascus during the first visit by a major Western leader since Assad's fall, injuring at least 18 (Sky). Hamas dissolved its Gaza governing body, clearing the way for a technocratic administration committee (France24). Hungary's Orbán-era state broadcasters suspended transmission under new PM Péter Magyar (Guardian). Le Pen declared a 2027 presidential run hours after losing her appeal (BBC). Cuba's national grid collapsed entirely (Sky). 📰 NATO summit opens in Ankara +4
